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Prediction for CME (2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-26T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34212/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) starting around 2024-10-26T06:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193, with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 starting around 07:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T04:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T05:00Z (-8.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-10-26T09:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 
Longitude (deg): 49E
Latitude (deg): 33S
Half-angular width (deg): 48

Notes: Previous fit had faster speed of ~1750 km/s. Given priming of environment a slightly earlier arrival is favoured than the time listed. Lower confidence in arrival time as a result.
Space weather advisor: T St Vincent

Lead Time: 27.52 hour(s)
Difference: -0.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-10-27T00:42Z

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